There will be another Recession by Mid 2020, till 2021, NGF Warns

……Says States should boost their IGR and Reduce over-dependence on Federation Account, Calls for full diversification of the Economy

……Urges States to Strengthen their Tax Laws

ABUJA- THE Nigeria Governors’ Forum, NGF, the umbrella body of the thirty- six state governors, warned yesterday that Nigeria as a county should get prepared for another cycle of recession by mid – 2020 which will last till the third quarter of 2021, just as it asked State governors to work hand in hand to boost the economy in tandem with the global best practices.

Speaking yesterday in Abuja at the induction of new and returning governors, Governor of Zamfara State and Chairman, NGF, Abdulaziz Yari told the newly elected and returning governors to prepare for the possibility of another cycle of recession, just as he urged state governors to work harder to boost their Internally Generated Revenue to enable them to execute more projects and reduce over-dependence on the Federation Account as the means of promoting the social well being of their people.

According to him, the NGF and the National Economic Council led by Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, have agreed that borrowing was never a reliable alternative to solving economic problems, just as he urged the incoming ones and other ties of government to multiply revenue generation bases as that would help change the course of doing government business for the overall interest of the people.

The NGF Chairman said, “borrowing is never a reliable alternative to solving our economic problems. We must work hard among all the tiers of government to multiply our revenue generation bases so that together we change the course of doing government business for the betterment of our people.

“In so doing, key revenue agencies like the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, Federal Inland Revenue Service, the Nigerian Customs Service, and other sister agencies must be made to work more effectively now that Mr. President has signed the much awaited National Minimum Wage law, pegging the minimum workers salaries at N30,000 per month.”

He urged the incoming governors to strengthen tax laws to encourage Nigerians to pay their taxes and also called for full diversification of the nation’s economy which means a shift from reliance on export of commodities which include oil, gold or any agricultural produce.

It would be recalled that Nigeria had officially entered a recession for the first time in more than two decades, in August 2016, according to figures which showed that economy had contracted for a second consecutive quarter.

The NGF Chair also reminded the governors and incoming ones that it will not be a smooth ride as they begin new administration against the backdrop that while the crude oil price was over $100 from 2011-15, the price noise dived to less than 75 percent from 2015 leading to recession.

According to him, in today’s free market, sustainable growth and genuine development could only be achieved when there is attention on industrialization rather than the export of primary commodities.

Speaking further at the beginning of a two- day induction Programme Organised by NGF Secretariat under the leadership of Asishana Okauru as the Director- General at the Banquet Hall, Presidential Villa, governor Yari said, “on our part, we made a lot of achievements in infrastructural development and provision of social services because we enjoyed a relatively high oil price of about $100 to $114 per barrel between 2001 and the middle of 2014.

“However, by the mid-2014, the price of crude oil, which is sadly the main driving force of government’s expenditure, dropped to $75 per barrel. It, therefore, became very difficult for many states to even pay the salaries of their workers.

“This scenario is a wake-up call for all of you to come amply prepared to face these kinds of challenges especially since we are expecting the possibility of another cycle of recession by mid-2020 and which may last up to a third quarter of 2021. Your good spirit of stewardship will make you contain the situation should there be one. Also, as members of the National Economic Council, you must work hand in hand to boost the economy in tandem with the global best practices.

“Experience, they say, is the best teacher. Ours has been a challenging experience of managing state economies that are totally dependency on accruals from the federation account rather than exploring viable alternatives to run the economy. For most of the states, internally generated revenues are nothing to write home about. You must, therefore, look inward by boosting your revenue generation base and also utilize them effectively for the execution of projects that would touch the lives of your people. You must not forget the high expectations of our people on us; now that the democracy is maturing day in day out the challenges of governance and service delivery are more demanding.”

While stressing the importance of seeking reliable alternative funding away from the federation account, the NGF chairman said, “it is unfortunate that our people have a very negative attitude to payment of taxes in full, including corporate agencies.  My take on this is that, as a country with over 200 million people, our individual and collective contributions in ensuring prompt payment of taxes can help the government achieve all its objectives.

“For us to achieve these responsibilities, we have to strengthen our tax laws and to make them very effective in our task of building a better Nigeria.  If the necessary measures are put in place to provide a working system, I am certain that at the end of the day, we are going to succeed in tackling unemployment, reducing poverty,  ensuring food security and disease control as well as building a nation with a robust economy.”

Also speaking, the Bishop of the Catholic Diocese of Sokoto, Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah who spoke on the task of Nation Building, who noted that the foundations of our democracies were being threatened, however, urged the governors and other elected persons to take decisions on how Nigeria should go.

Kukah who noted that poor voter turn out is an indictment in politics said that Nigeria as a country has not managed pluralism very well, said that the older order was still a with us, no sound ideological basis for politics, weak political culture, and the culture Godfatherism.

According to him, nation-building is a project who not only for politicians, even as he urged elected officers especially the governors to bring in outsiders, non politicians, learn to embrace the opponent, manage diversity as well as point the way, adding that governors should endeavor to read biographies of Mandela, Kennedy, Obama, Churchill, Gandhi, among others.

Also speaking on the the Task of Nation Building, Chairman, First Bank of Nigeria, Mrs Ibukun Awosika who harped on integrity as a very critical ingredient in nation building,  however urged the governors to ensure that they build legacies, they should put in place what they would all be remembered for, adding that they should endeavor to provide for the people, the needed infrastructure, put in place those things that will make the people change, that will make the people always be ready to defend the governors even when they have left the office.

According to her, as state Executives, they must not seek for commerce without morality, and that they must use the position effectively to build a nation where there will be peace and unity in Nigeria.

Awosika said It’s been fascinating listening to how much help is being offered to our nation by the rest of the world. But my reality is all anybody can do is offer help but we are the ones to build our nation, nobody else can build our county for us. And for us to build our country, we will have never to own it. And in reality, the value chain of leadership at the heart of that value chain are those of you seated on this side. The governors of every state, are the major point of contact of every citizen of this country,  pod roads once we get out of our houses, you are the reason we will have good public health if it exists, you are the reason our children will get a good education, you are the reason that things will work together for our nation to be what it deserves to be.

“In reality, having gone through the programme, I realize that the governors’ forum has done a fantastic job in scheduling everything that will be covered because there are the fundamentals of what an incoming or current governor need to know in other to be effective in their jobs. I, therefore, have decided to deal with an issue that is personal to you as governors, issues you have control of and that it is not about what anybody does but it is about what you do. And in doing that I have chosen to ask a few questions.

“I will start with the question of you asking yourself, who am I, why did I choose to take on this assignment. If you know who you are and you have now decided to be the governor of the state by choice, then you need to ask yourself where am I going, what is the goal for which I chose this assignment and in choosing to do this, what is the value that I set out to deliver to my people. And when you are done trying to answer those questions honestly, I always say, to thyself be true. Because, no matter what we say to other people when it is just you and the mirror, you can look at yourself and be truthful to yourself.

“But it is important that we have a sense of who we are because, in the journey of leadership especially in Nigeria, sycophancy is very real. The pressure of the society and the people are around you can change the fundamentals of who you are if you not continue to remind yourself of who you are and why you took the job in the first place. And soon enough you become something else other than you who are when you first started.

“So, it is important for you to write it down, stick down your desk and remind yourself often that this is who I am, this is why I took this job and there are people whose lives depend on me.  Because at the end of the day it doesn’t matter what job somebody else’s gives us.

“The federal government can have the best, greatest plans in the world but the guys who touch my life and the life of every Ute Nigerian every day are the governors of our state. I am an Ibadan girl that means have my governors seating before me, I am married to an Ondo man, my Ondo Governor is seated there but the most important Governor to me in this room is the governor of Lagos State, because l I live in Lagos, all my business are in Lagos, my life is affected every minute by what he does or what he does not do.

“In reality, when we talk of equity of trust you can only get that trust from people who trust what you do by you affect and impact their lives every day. So what I am doing on behalf of my fellow citizens, I am pleading that now that you have the power, elections are over, now you are in office, you have the power and resources of the state and if gain the trust of the people, they will pay more tax. When you gain the trust of the people by performance and the things that you do, ultimately you will benefit from it. Because, when you see a great man do great things that affect your life every day when he is done with the office, the position is over, when you see him on the streets you will stop by to greet him and say honour him and respect.

“So my question to you is that how do you want your days to end? Because if you have a vision of the end of your days, you can walk back to where you are now, to how you want it to be and structure the actions that you take daily in your state. Think of every action and how it will affect the lives of those people who don’t necessarily have a voice, they have the vote but not the voice.

“And when you see children that are hungry in your state, you have failed them in some way, yet you have the machinery and the capacities to help them. When you see people die from simple medical situations that they need not to, it means that the states have failed. But we have the states and the capacity to make it different.

“Now, you are not going to be able to solve all the problems that are important. But the integrity of the heart of the leaders, your commitment to truly change the lives of your people is what will bring for you all the help that you will need. Because, when a man sets out to do the right thing and it shows anyways, every kind of help will come from everywhere. People will do things for you without taking a dime because they can see your commitment and the integrity of your heart.

“For a nation to truly be great, the integrity of every man sitting on this table as governor, as governor-elect is critical for nation building.

“You need to own your own vision for your life, you need to own what you want your legacy to be and you have the opportunity from this moment to build that legacy by the things you do every day. There will be people who will seek to derail you but by being confident of who you are and making the decision that I will live true to my values, to what is right for my country and my people, that I want to be able to walk freely amongst my people even when I am done and I am old and tired, with that determination your action will change things for people. You cannot do everything, you will not do everything, just chose roads, chose education, chose health, make your contract clear with your state, let them know that our resources cannot cover all of these, these are the only things we will do in the next four years  and deliver on those things. Once you are clear and your people understand, they will stand by you and defend you in the day of trouble. At the end of the day, you will get much more than anybody can pay you for.

“In this position, it is generally assumed that it is an opportunity for wealth but if you want to build a nation and do it and use the office that you have and use it right, you will be guided by not building wealth without work. You will get what you deserve as your pay for the office but you will get much more than that from your citizens because you have done them right.

“Don’t seek for pleasure without a conscience because in seeking pleasure without a conscience, there will be traps set for you that will derail you from your goal. Which is why it is important you know who you are, where you are there, why you set out to do this and you must stick to what is right.

“Don’t seek for knowledge without character, a man that does not have character does not deserve to be leading any of our value chain of the leadership of this country. But if you are there, seek to be the example for the people that will serve under you in your government, people of your state, ultimately there is so much joy in seeing the accomplishments of that which you set out to do and in seeing lives that are fulfilled because of that which you have done.

“Don’t seek for commerce without morality. In building the economy of your state, make sure there is transparency and that things work and that there is accountability so that people can see what you do every day. Even when mischief makers appear to try to turn that which you have done upside down, they will be ordinary citizens that will rise up to defend your base on how they have interacted with you and seeing that which you have done.

“Please don’t seek for politics without principles. You know to ask us every day, why are you not in this party or that party, why are you not joining politics, let’s be honest, we do not have politics of ideology in our country so far, we have politics of people. And if you want the right people to gather and give us the critical mass that we need to build our nation, you are the next generation of leaders that can ensure that we begin to set the template and the agenda for a great nation to be great.

“It hurts me, it breaks my heart every time you are talking to people outside of this country and they open their mouths and talk about this nation that you know within it is everything that it needs, we have all the human minds that will build a great nation. God has blessed us abundantly with resources, some of your states are richer than others but guess what, it is not so much about how rich you are, is how well that you apply the resources that you have sincerely to meet the needs of your people. Even ordinary citizens will help you to think through. You don’t have all the answers but you have humans that can support you and they don’t have to come from your state. We all need Nigeria to work, it doesn’t matter from what state. For me to drive from Lagos to Ondo I am going to come across how many states, so I need every part of Nigeria to work. To fly from Lagos today, assuming I was driving, imagine the number of states of Nigeria I will pass through to get here. Every state’s count to every Nigerian, it doesn’t matter where we come from if you n the e help look for the Nigerian that will help you. We all want this country to work and we are very hopeful that because you have this position and you have this power, people have entrusted you with it that you will use it effectively to build a nation, the portion of it that is assigned to you. And that you will work collectively for the unity of this nation. Because a nation that is divided against itself cannot stand but in the place of unity… I am a Christian, the Bible says God has commanded His blessings, which means every time we combine our knowledge, our wisdom and all our resources together, we can build a great nation that the world will be afraid of.

“I want my nation to work, I want to be able to tell my children this is why I say you must live in Nigeria and nowhere else. And I ask for your help that as you do what you have sworn to do or you will swear to do as you take office, that the Lord will help you to do it right, that ultimately we will build a nation that we will all be proud of.”

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