Bayelsa/Kogi Polls: The Candidates, Their Chances And The Odds

Ahead of the November 16 governorship elections in  Bayelsa  and Kogi states, the various political parties have nominated their candidates for the polls.  CHRISTIANA NWAOGU, Abuja, OSA OKHOMINA, Yenogoa and SAM EGWU, Lokoja  profile them, their chances and the possible odds against them, as they kick start the campaigns.

SENATOR DOUYE DIRI (PDP)

Prior to his being elected a Senator in 2019,  Douye  Diri,  served as a member of the House of Representatives.

Senator Diri, 60 years old, is from the central senatorial district of Kolokuma/Opokuma local government area of the State. He is eloquent and commands massive support of the party. He is considered as the most experienced among the candidates having served both in the public office and holding  political offices.

Following his dramatic emergence as the governorship candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) , some observers are curious to know how far he can lead the ruling party to realise its plan to retain power in the state

Though there are a few cases of defection recorded within the PDP due to the contentious issue of his picking a  running mate, political observers are  however of the view that the PDP still remains the party to beat , considering its existing political structure and coordination at the grassroots.

Haven been a commissioner for youth and sports in the state, when the former president, Dr Goodluck Jonathan was governor, Diri , has also been a teacher and a businessman. At present, he is also a prominent member of the incumbent governor  Dickson’s political group known as Restoration Caucus.

Disturbingly, the emergence of Diri, which most PDP leaders and supporters kicked against is almost tearing the party’s home apart .

Chief Diri according to sources is generally described as a stingy man, whose administration could cause more hunger and starvation in the state.

PDP members from Southern Ijaw, who were more vocal, opposed Diri, insisting that since the governorship was zoned to the central senatorial district, they were in a better position to produce the party’s candidate. They maintained that the slot should not go to Yenagoa in the zone because of its dry-voting pattern and Kolokuma-Opokuma, where Diri hails from in the zone because it has the least population of voters in the state.

Despite mounting opposition against Diri, Dickson settled for him and ensured his victory at the internal poll. The governor however faulted his critics insisting  that Diri possessed qualities expected from the future governor of Bayelsa. He said his preferred candidate was not stingy but was only a good student of his political school on prudent management of resources

Another factor that may serve as a disadvantage for the ruling PDP  is the controversy that greeted the initial choice of the running mate to Diri

Chief DAVID LYON (APC)

The emergence of chief David Lyon as the flag bearer  of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the November 16 governorship election and the complaints of six other leading aspirants has further  heightened fears over the chances of the leading opposition party in taking over Bayelsa state.

While his victory of September 4 is being contested by three of the leading aspirants , his critics within the party had alleged that he rode on the back of the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Chief Timipre Sylva, to defeat stronger aspirants like the immediate past Minister of State for Agriculture, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, and Prince Preye Aganaba.

An allegation that  has  heightened fear over the chances of the party in the coming election even as some supporters of the other aspirants have threatened to realign against the party during the governorship elections if his fraudulent outcome is not reversed.

Though most of the aggrieved supporters of those aspirants who claimed to have been robbed by the party still await  the outcome of litigations or political settlements over the disputed primaries, the candidature of Chief David Lyon is catching on like wild fire.

At the last count, the candidature of Chief David Lyon has led to the formation of over sixty political groups advocating for his emergence as governor and various campaign offices opened in his name.

This is because despite the internal wrangling in APC, Lyon appears to enjoy mass appeal in the state. He has suddenly become a household name with his popularity souring above other candidates for the election.

NAIJA LIVE TV Friday observed that the PDP’s choice of candidate has contributed to the growing popularity of Lyon. In fact, before the emergence of Diri, most PDP leaders kicked against his emergence.

Chief David Lyon is from one of the largest Southern Ijaw local government area of the State.

Though the calculation of the APC, according to political observers, would be to command votes from Brass, Nembe, Southern Ijaw and as well struggle for their share of votes from the PDP dominated areas, which will give him the edge  to defeat Senator Diri, many including the governor, Hon. Seriake Dickson, considers David Lyon a “rookie” in politics

He has been in politics since the Third Republic. Chief Lyon was once a strong member of the defunct NRC where he contested as a councillor of his wardand won but the dream was  aborted by the then military government.

He was elected youth president of his  community under a tense option A4 election,   youth president of his community, Olugbobiri, in 1996. Appointed chairman of Apoi Olodiama local government development center by the late Chief DSP Alamieyeiseigha government in 2002. He contested for the House of Assembly seat in his constituency, but later stepped down for former Speaker Kombowei Benson, who got the ticket of PDP through in-house harmonisation initiated by the leadership of PDP.”

He was prior to his emergence , a bonafide and devoted member of the PDP in Bayelsa State, before joining the APC .

However , fears are also that following APC ‘s boycottd of the crucial grassroots election (LGA) organised by the Bayelsa State Independent Electoral Commission, a development which  created an atmosphere that made the ruling party, PDP, to win all the eight local government areas in the state, It chances of winning the forthcoming poll is slim.

Given this reality, observers said APC would need to work harder to win the governorship election, given that PDP will not only utilise the power of incumbency at the state level but will have the support of all  executive chairmen of all the local government councils in the state.

PoliticaI observers believe that Lyon is benefiting from the alleged unpopularity of Diri, who is seen as an appendage and stooge to Dickson.

Another factor that may aide the victory of APC and Lyon is his choice of a running mate. Observers believe that both the APC and Lyon had sealed a better deal than PDP in the choice of a running mate because APC took Lyon’s running mate slot to Nembe, a local government area in Bayelsa East. The choice is the incumbent Senator representing the district, Mr. Biobarakumo Degi-Eremienyo. Nembe and Ogbia share close affinity and following the decision of the APC, there has been a drift of PDP leaders in the zone to the APC.

Dr. Ebizimo Diriyai (ACCORD PARTY)

Pastor Diriyai, as he is popularly called by supporters, is from Kolokuma/Opokuma  local lovernment area of the State.  He is new to the governorship contest in Bayelsa State.

A brief profile sent to NAIJA LIVE TV  Friday by one of his supporter indicates that “DIRIYAI is not a politician, but a statesman.

“He is a producer of sound moral haracter who  engages in vrtuous actions.

Ebizimo Diriyai, a man of vision having the requisite qualities of great servant-leader. He believes in continuity, consolidation and continuous positive transformation. As a transformational leader, he possesses the capacity to transform public aspirations and expectations into realities.

Vijah Opuama Eldred (Liberation  Movement)

Mr. Vijah Opuama Eldred is a young politician from Southern Ijaw local government area of the State who emerged flag bearer of his party, Liberation Movement, through consensus.

According to Aniso Abraham Esq., Chairman of Liberation Movement political party, the governorship primary exercise, which saw the emergence of Mr. Vijah Opuama Eldred as the party’s consensus candidate was peaceful and transparent. He strongly believes  that the Liberation Movement is the party to beat in the November 16, 2019 gubernatorial election.

“We are presenting the Bayelsa people a worthy alternative. From our primaries, you can see we are not a party desperate for power. We will be giving Bayelsans an alternative choice to make come 16th of November. We are going into this election ready to win. Liberation Party remains the party to beat.” He said.

Meanwhile, in Kogi State, though flag bearers from mushroom political parties have also emerged , political observers have concluded  that the November 16, contest is between candidates of the ruling APC and  the vibrant opposition, the PDP.

Governor Yahaya Bello (APC)

Incumbent governor Yahaya Bello of Kogi State was able to secured  APC governorship ticket to pursue his second term ambition it is widely believed that he will utilise  the power of incumbency which may perhaps, be among  his strengths in the November 16 election.

PoliticaI Analyst believe that as an  incumbent, governor, Bello controls enormous powers which he will certainly  use to advance his political cause.

One other key  factor that many believe will also  work in his favour  is the fact  that he has the financial wherewithal to pursue  his political ambition given the fact that finance remains a critical factor in our nation’s political sphere.

To a large extent, governor  Bello is expected  to  count on federal might and support from his fellow APC governors  and prominent party members who may stop at nothing to ensure that their party retains the seat of power in the state.

Another key  strength of the incumbent governor  is the contribution of  his political appointees and  support groups who would work to see he emerges victorious.

Famous among Yahaya Bello’s strength is the  outcome of the last general election in which the APC won the presidential election, clinched seven of the nine House of Representatives’ seats, two of the three senatorial seats and won all the 25 state assembly seats., this is besides his inroads into Igalaland through the influence of his Chief of Staff, Edward Onoja.

His strongest weak point is the issue of his alleged poor performance which many say may haunt him.

Engineer Musa Wada (PDP)

Engineer Musa Wada is from the majority Igala ethnic group which has the largest voting population in the state . To many, this is  an added  advantage to him. Apart from being an Igala, he is also from Dekina Local Government Area which has the largest voting strength amongst the 21 local governments of the state.

The Peoples Democratic Party flag bearer ,and younger brother of former governor Idris Wada is also a son-in-law to former governor Ibrahim Idris having married one of his daughters. Standing on this ladder, Engr. Wada is most likely to enjoy the support of these former governors in the forthcoming election.

Believed to have a strong grassroots support base and financial wherewithal to prosecute his governorship ambition,  his choice of his  running mate  is also considered an added advantage for him.

There are however, fears that since some of the aspirants that contested the primary election with Wada are aggrieved with the outcome of the exercise , this , could be an odd against him if he is unable to reconcile with them ahead of the  November poll.

Another major weakness of Engineer Wada, is that he is viewed as a cradle in politics , having spent most of his life in the maritime sector. Feelers are that he may secure fewer votes within the Kogi Central Senatorial District .

Abdullahi Mohammed (AP)

Abdullahi Mohammed believes that his second attempt at the governorship of Kogi State would be rewarding having reached the stage of the primary election in 2015.

He  is said to be  the major financier of the Accord Party.

Barr Natasha Akpoti (SDP)

The SDP candidate, Natasha Akpoti has been engaged in commendable activities across the state. The lawyer and social activist is a half caste. Her late father was a medical doctor from Okene in Kogi Central, while her mother is from Russia.

Natasha is extremely popular in the Central and her bid to represent the zone in the Senate during the last election was only allegedly derailed by Bello’s rough tackles. The matter is still in court.

Her gubernatorial ambition is making waves across the state and just be a candidate to watch.

Described by many as a tested war general and a warrior, she layed her life for the race. Akpoti has the support of Ebira women and some undisclosed menfolk who would not want to be mentioned.

 The Sheikh Jibril Ibrahim ( APGA)

Shield Ibrahim though a forner  member of APC  bolted out of the party alleging  injustice hence, his decision to join the race so as to correct the wrongs deeds of  the party.

According to analysts nobody should underrate the third force. Engr Abdulmalik Adama (HDP), is rearing to go with strong determination to clinch the coveted trophy.

It is certain that both the people of Kogi and Bayelsa States will choose who will saddle the affairs of their  respective states from this obviously crowded basket of candidates .

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